Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 9, September 2018 | pp. 955–963

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090902

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Geopolitics of International Mediation: Assessing the Role of the African Union in the South Sudanese Civil War

Authors: John M. Garang¹, Claire M. Dubois²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Institute for Peace, Development and Security Studies, University of Juba, Juba, South Sudan; ²Department of War Studies, King's College London, London, United Kingdom

Abstract:
This article analyzes the diplomatic performance and strategic limitations of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHLIP) in mediating the South Sudanese civil conflict between 2014 and 2017. Adopting a structural neo-realist perspective combined with key informant interviews from 45 senior regional diplomats, we dissect how competing national interests within neighboring East African states fractured the AU's mediation strategy. The research shows that regional geopolitical rivalries between Uganda and Sudan deeply compromised the AU’s leverage, allowing internal South Sudanese factions to repeatedly violate signed ceasefire agreements without facing consequence. Our empirical analysis establishes that the AU’s preference for elite power-sharing models systematically ignored deep-seated structural communal grievances over local border demarcation and resource allocation. This elite-centric approach directly resulted in a 52% failure rate for short-term localized security agreements. We argue that future regional peace initiatives must shift from top-down executive power-sharing structures toward enforceable, multi-layered mediation frameworks that link regional trade sanctions directly to verifiable frontline human rights metrics.

Keywords: International Mediation; African Union; South Sudan; Civil War; Geopolitics; Power-Sharing

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 28, 2018; Revised: June 18, 2018; Accepted: July 02, 2018; Published: September 15, 2018

Citation: Garang, J. M., & Dubois, C. M. (2018). The Geopolitics of International Mediation: Assessing the Role of the African Union in the South Sudanese Civil War. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(9), 955–963. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090902

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 9, September 2018 | pp. 946–954

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090901

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Socioeconomic Reintegration and the Stigmatization of Child Soldiers: A Longitudinal Analysis of Post-Conflict Northern Uganda

Authors: Florence A. Akello¹, Julian P. Vance²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Mental Health, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda; ²Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom

Abstract:
This study presents a longitudinal tracking analysis examining the long-term socioeconomic reintegration outcomes of 280 formally abducted child soldiers who returned to civilian communities in northern Uganda. Spanning a five-year monitoring window up to late 2017, we assess the structural impacts of persistent social stigmatization on psychological healing and livelihood stability. Utilizing standardized clinical mental health surveys alongside community focus groups, we evaluate the comparative efficacy of state-led economic cash transfers versus traditional community-led psychosocial support systems. The quantitative findings indicate that former child combatants who settled in rural areas with strong indigenous customary reconciliation mechanisms showed a 44% lower incidence of severe post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms compared to those who migrated to urban manufacturing centers. Our regression models establish that high community-level social stigma directly correlates with an elevated risk of economic isolation and a 32% higher rate of youth marginalization. The paper concludes that sustainable child soldier reintegration requires shifting state funding from short-term individual financial payouts toward long-term structural investments in communal educational institutions.

Keywords: Child Soldiers; Psychosocial Reintegration; Northern Uganda; Social Stigmatization; Livelihood Security; Mental Health

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 22, 2018; Revised: June 12, 2018; Accepted: June 28, 2018; Published: September 12, 2018

Citation: Akello, F. A., & Vance, J. P. (2018). Socioeconomic Reintegration and the Stigmatization of Child Soldiers: A Longitudinal Analysis of Post-Conflict Northern Uganda. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(9), 946–954. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090901

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 8, August 2018 | pp. 928–936

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090801

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Evolution of Transitional Justice in Post-Conflict Balkans: Assessing Domestic War Crimes Prosecutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Authors: Goran M. Filipovic¹, Elena K. Petrova²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Faculty of Law, University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina; ²Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

Abstract:
Following the closure of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), domestic judicial systems assumed primary responsibility for processing remaining war crimes cases. This paper critically evaluates the efficacy of the War Crimes Section of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina in promoting national reconciliation and legal accountability from 2014 to 2017. Employing a legal discourse methodology paired with qualitative feedback from 94 victims' advocacy groups, we dissect the institutional barriers impeding domestic transitional justice. The legal analysis shows that deep-seated political polarization and regional non-cooperation on extradition treaties have resulted in a severe judicial backlog, leaving over 400 complex cases unresolved. Our statistical assessments reveal that localized prosecution models remain vulnerable to regional political pressures, yielding a 35% drop in witness cooperation due to inadequate state-level protection programs. The article concludes that domestic war crimes tribunals cannot build sustainable rule of law without absolute financial autonomy and the decoupling of judicial selection processes from ethno-political party controls.

Keywords: Transitional Justice; War Crimes; Balkans; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Legal Accountability; Reconciliation

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 10, 2018; Revised: June 02, 2018; Accepted: June 18, 2018; Published: August 15, 2018

Citation: Filipovic, Goran M., & Petrova, E. K. (2018). The Evolution of Transitional Justice in Post-Conflict Balkans: Assessing Domestic War Crimes Prosecutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(8), 928–936. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090801

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 8, August 2018 | pp. 937–945

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090802

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Evaluating Regional Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Critical Assessment of CEWARN's Operational Efficacy in the Horn of Africa

Authors: Amanuel T. Mengistu¹, Sarah L. Harrison²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; ²Department of War Studies, King's College London, London, United Kingdom

Abstract:
The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was established to prevent cross-border pastoral conflicts in the Horn of Africa. This study evaluates the structural and operational efficacy of CEWARN’s data collection grids in mitigating border skirmishes between Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan from 2015 to 2017. Utilizing an empirical tracking model, we compare local conflict warning indicators against actual state response timelines. The findings indicate that while CEWARN’s community-based monitors successfully generated real-time data regarding cattle movements and local arms flows, a severe systemic gap remains between early warning alerts and state-level security responses. Statistical analysis reveals that less than 18% of high-risk operational warnings triggered rapid, preventive deployments by national security forces. This failure is primarily driven by rigid state sovereignty concerns and centralized military command structures that ignore localized human security indicators. We conclude that transforming early warning into effective conflict prevention requires granting regional monitors autonomous local intervention budgets.

Keywords: Conflict Early Warning; CEWARN; Horn of Africa; Conflict Prevention; Regional Security; Pastoral Violence

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 15, 2018; Revised: June 05, 2018; Accepted: June 22, 2018; Published: August 18, 2018

Citation: Mengistu, A. T., & Harrison, S. L. (2018). Evaluating Regional Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Critical Assessment of CEWARN's Operational Efficacy in the Horn of Africa. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(8), 937–945. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090802

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 7, July 2018 | pp. 919–927

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090702

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Geopolitics of Resource Extraction and Localized Insurgency: Evaluating Corporate Security Coalitions in the Niger Delta

Authors: Tari E. Agbamu¹, Blessing N. Udofia²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria; ²Center for Conflict and Gender Studies, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Abstract:
This study investigates the socioeconomic consequences of private-public security arrangements protecting multinational oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta region. Utilizing a political ecology framework combined with field observations gathered across three oil-producing communities between 2015 and 2017, we analyze the structural links between environmental degradation, corporate security funding, and localized insurgent mobilization. The field evidence demonstrates that the tactical outsourcing of community policing to specialized state military task forces has fragmented local traditional authority systems and intensified communal grievances. Quantitative metrics establish that areas characterized by heavy corporate security footprints experience a 45% higher rate of community-led pipeline disruptions and localized militia recruitment campaigns due to unresolved land compensation claims. The study highlights how the lack of transparent corporate environmental accountability frameworks continues to exacerbate structural economic marginalization. We argue that long-term regional stabilization requires moving away from securitized resource protection models toward legally binding community-corporate benefit agreements that prioritize local ecological restoration and sustainable youth employment.

Keywords: Resource Extraction; Niger Delta; Corporate Security; Insurgency; Environmental Degradation; Local Grievances

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 02, 2018; Revised: May 22, 2018; Accepted: June 10, 2018; Published: July 18, 2018

Citation: Agbamu, T. E., & Udofia, B. N. (2018). The Geopolitics of Resource Extraction and Localized Insurgency: Evaluating Corporate Security Coalitions in the Niger Delta. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(7), 919–927. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090702

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 7, July 2018 | pp. 910–918

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090701

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Impact of Electoral Reform on Ethno-Political Violence: A Comparative Analysis of Post-2015 Constitutional Changes in Sri Lanka

Authors: Ranil S. Jayawardene¹, Kumari M. Perera²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka; ²International Centre for Ethnic Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract:
This paper evaluates how the structural shift from a semi-presidential system to an enhanced parliamentary framework under the 19th Amendment impacted ethno-political violence and minority representation in post-war Sri Lanka. Using an institutional approach mixed with field interviews conducted across Northern and Eastern provinces from 2016 to 2017, we analyze the shifting patterns of state-minority tensions. The empirical findings reveal that while reducing executive presidential power lowered national-level zero-sum political conflict, decentralized security vacuums emerged at local administrative levels. Our regression models establish a high correlation (R² = 0.64, p < 0.01) between weak central police oversight and a 38% increase in localized communal hate speech campaigns targeting religious minorities. The data demonstrates that structural electoral adjustments failed to institutionalize deep-rooted inter-ethnic reconciliation due to the persistence of exclusionary nationalist networks within regional governance bodies. The study concludes that legislative devolution cannot prevent identity-driven clashes unless accompanied by independent judicial enforcement systems that actively penalize local human rights violations.

Keywords: Electoral Reform; Ethno-Political Violence; Sri Lanka; Minority Rights; Constitutional Engineering; Devolution

Manuscript Timeline: Received: March 28, 2018; Revised: May 18, 2018; Accepted: June 05, 2018; Published: July 15, 2018

Citation: Jayawardene, R. S., & Perera, K. M. (2018). The Impact of Electoral Reform on Ethno-Political Violence: A Comparative Analysis of Post-2015 Constitutional Changes in Sri Lanka. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(7), 910–918. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090701