The Geopolitics of International Mediation: Assessing the Role of the African Union in the South Sudanese Civil War

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 9, September 2018 | pp. 955–963

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090902

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Geopolitics of International Mediation: Assessing the Role of the African Union in the South Sudanese Civil War

Authors: John M. Garang¹, Claire M. Dubois²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Institute for Peace, Development and Security Studies, University of Juba, Juba, South Sudan; ²Department of War Studies, King's College London, London, United Kingdom

Abstract:
This article analyzes the diplomatic performance and strategic limitations of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHLIP) in mediating the South Sudanese civil conflict between 2014 and 2017. Adopting a structural neo-realist perspective combined with key informant interviews from 45 senior regional diplomats, we dissect how competing national interests within neighboring East African states fractured the AU's mediation strategy. The research shows that regional geopolitical rivalries between Uganda and Sudan deeply compromised the AU’s leverage, allowing internal South Sudanese factions to repeatedly violate signed ceasefire agreements without facing consequence. Our empirical analysis establishes that the AU’s preference for elite power-sharing models systematically ignored deep-seated structural communal grievances over local border demarcation and resource allocation. This elite-centric approach directly resulted in a 52% failure rate for short-term localized security agreements. We argue that future regional peace initiatives must shift from top-down executive power-sharing structures toward enforceable, multi-layered mediation frameworks that link regional trade sanctions directly to verifiable frontline human rights metrics.

Keywords: International Mediation; African Union; South Sudan; Civil War; Geopolitics; Power-Sharing

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 28, 2018; Revised: June 18, 2018; Accepted: July 02, 2018; Published: September 15, 2018

Citation: Garang, J. M., & Dubois, C. M. (2018). The Geopolitics of International Mediation: Assessing the Role of the African Union in the South Sudanese Civil War. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(9), 955–963. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090902

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