Evaluating Regional Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Critical Assessment of CEWARN's Operational Efficacy in the Horn of Africa

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 8, August 2018 | pp. 937–945

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090802

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Evaluating Regional Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Critical Assessment of CEWARN's Operational Efficacy in the Horn of Africa

Authors: Amanuel T. Mengistu¹, Sarah L. Harrison²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; ²Department of War Studies, King's College London, London, United Kingdom

Abstract:
The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was established to prevent cross-border pastoral conflicts in the Horn of Africa. This study evaluates the structural and operational efficacy of CEWARN’s data collection grids in mitigating border skirmishes between Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan from 2015 to 2017. Utilizing an empirical tracking model, we compare local conflict warning indicators against actual state response timelines. The findings indicate that while CEWARN’s community-based monitors successfully generated real-time data regarding cattle movements and local arms flows, a severe systemic gap remains between early warning alerts and state-level security responses. Statistical analysis reveals that less than 18% of high-risk operational warnings triggered rapid, preventive deployments by national security forces. This failure is primarily driven by rigid state sovereignty concerns and centralized military command structures that ignore localized human security indicators. We conclude that transforming early warning into effective conflict prevention requires granting regional monitors autonomous local intervention budgets.

Keywords: Conflict Early Warning; CEWARN; Horn of Africa; Conflict Prevention; Regional Security; Pastoral Violence

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 15, 2018; Revised: June 05, 2018; Accepted: June 22, 2018; Published: August 18, 2018

Citation: Mengistu, A. T., & Harrison, S. L. (2018). Evaluating Regional Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Critical Assessment of CEWARN's Operational Efficacy in the Horn of Africa. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(8), 937–945. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/090802

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