Natural Resource Abundance and Civil Conflict Escalation: Evaluating Asymmetric Rent-Seeking in Weak State Environments

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 8, No. 9, September 2017 | pp. 739–747

DOI: 10.46882/2017/GJPCS/0000104

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Natural Resource Abundance and Civil Conflict Escalation: Evaluating Asymmetric Rent-Seeking in Weak State Environments

Names of Authors: Yusuf Al-Kazi¹, Ling Wei²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Economics, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq; ²School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China

Abstract: Abstract: The institutional weaknesses that characterize point-source natural resource economies frequently amplify sub-national vulnerability to insurgent mobilization and systemic rent-seeking behavior. This study presents a comparative econometric analysis investigating the causal links between primary commodity export values and the tactical escalation of civil conflicts. Using panel data from 65 developing nations between 2000 and 2016, we modeled the statistical interactions between resource licensing distributions, transparency markers, and localized conflict occurrence frequencies. The econometric models confirm that a 10% surge in oil and mineral revenue dependency raises the baseline probability of sub-national conflict initiation by 4.2% (p < 0.01). Further interaction tracing reveals that this effect is entirely mediated by institutional capacity and regulatory transparency metrics. In nations with independent anti-corruption agencies and strict budget oversight, resource wealth does not correlate with conflict initiation. The study demonstrates that natural resource wealth triggers conflict primarily by funding rebel groups and weakening state administrative capacity through corruption. The paper concludes that enforcing international fiscal transparency mandates is vital for preventing resource-driven insurgencies.

Keywords: Resource Curse, Civil Conflict, Rent-Seeking, Econometric Modeling, State Capacity, Primary Commodities, Fiscal Transparency

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 10, 2017; Revised: June 15, 2017; Accepted: July 20, 2017; Published: September 14, 2017

Citation: Al-Kazi, Y., & Wei, L. (2017). Natural Resource Abundance and Civil Conflict Escalation: Evaluating Asymmetric Rent-Seeking in Weak State Environments. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 8(9), 739–747. DOI: 10.46882/2017/GJPCS/0000104

Subscribe to read the full article: https://internationalscholarsjournals.org/subscribe-to-read