Commercial Interdependence and Security Resiliency: Analyzing Trade Volatility Across Disputed Strategic Boundaries

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 8, No. 5, May 2017 | pp. 703–711

DOI: 10.46882/2017/GJPCS/0000100

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Commercial Interdependence and Security Resiliency: Analyzing Trade Volatility Across Disputed Strategic Boundaries

Names of Authors: Ling Wei¹, Rajesh Kumar²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China; ²Department of Economics, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India

Abstract: Abstract: The core framework of liberal peace theory posits that deep commercial interdependence creates powerful economic disincentives that deter state actors from executing militarized border actions. This study tests this hypothesis by evaluating bilateral trade flows and tactical confrontation frequencies across competitive transit sectors. Utilizing panel data regression analysis, we modeled the relationship between transit insurance variations, bilateral trade volumes, and state border enforcement skirmishes from 1995 to 2016. The statistical outputs demonstrate that high mutual trade volume significantly decreases the probability of conventional militarized disputes (Beta = -0.45, p < 0.001). However, further interaction tracking reveals that highly asymmetric trade relationships—where one nation depends disproportionately on the other—can actually amplify structural vulnerabilities and diplomatic tensions. The findings reveal that commercial ties only deter conflict when the costs of disruption are distributed equally across both states. The study concludes that regional trade blocks must incorporate equitable resource distribution rules to successfully function as peace stabilization mechanisms.

Keywords: Commercial Interdependence, Security Resiliency, Trade Volatility, Liberal Peace, Panel Data, Strategic Boundaries, Asymmetric Trade

Manuscript Timeline: Received: December 05, 2016; Revised: February 14, 2017; Accepted: March 19, 2017; Published: May 12, 2017

Citation: Wei, L., & Kumar, R. (2017). Commercial Interdependence and Security Resiliency: Analyzing Trade Volatility Across Disputed Strategic Boundaries. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 8(5), 703–711. DOI: 10.46882/2017/GJPCS/0000100

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