Environmental Scarcity and Asymmetric Insurgency: Analyzing Hydro-Politics in Contested Semiarid Basins

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 7, No. 3, March 2016 | pp. 577–585

DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000086

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Environmental Scarcity and Asymmetric Insurgency: Analyzing Hydro-Politics in Contested Semiarid Basins

Names of Authors: Amina El-Sayed¹, Linda van der Meer²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt; ²Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Hague, Netherlands

Abstract: Abstract: The intersections between climate-induced water degradation, sub-national hydro-politics, and insurgent resource mobilization present a primary risk to regional stability. This study evaluates how structural asymmetries in water infrastructure control alter the tactical leverage of non-state armed groups across volatile semiarid river basins. Utilizing a longitudinal geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis paired with 400 rural household surveys, we tracked reservoir levels, irrigation distribution data, and insurgent tactical launch locations from 2005 to 2015. The empirical models confirm that a 20% contraction in state-managed downstream water allocations triggers a corresponding 45% increase in local enlistment rates within active sub-national insurgent cells (p < 0.01). Spatial data show that armed non-state factions exploit community water grievances to systematically embed parallel taxation networks across agrarian territories. The regression models indicate that institutional water mismanagement accounts for 51% of the variance in anti-state mobilization metrics (R² = 0.51). The study concludes that traditional militarized resource protection frameworks fail to deter insurgent expansion unless decoupled from discriminatory infrastructure allocation practices.

Keywords: Hydro-politics, Environmental Scarcity, Asymmetric Insurgency, Water Infrastructure, GIS Spatial Analysis, Insurgent Mobilization

Manuscript Timeline: Received: October 11, 2015; Revised: December 14, 2015; Accepted: January 20, 2016; Published: March 06, 2016

Citation: El-Sayed, A., & van der Meer, L. (2016). Environmental Scarcity and Asymmetric Insurgency: Analyzing Hydro-Politics in Contested Semiarid Basins. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 7(3), 577–585. DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000086

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