Commercial Interdependence and Territorial Resiliency: Analyzing Maritime Trade Dynamics in Geopolitical Chokepoints

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 7, No. 8, August 2016 | pp. 622–630

DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000091

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Commercial Interdependence and Territorial Resiliency: Analyzing Maritime Trade Dynamics in Geopolitical Chokepoints

Names of Authors: Ling Wei¹, Astrid Lindstrom²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China; ²Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

Abstract: Abstract: The core tenets of liberal peace theory suggest that deep commercial interdependence generates structural economic penalties that deter nation-states from executing armed border incursions. This study tests this hypothesis by evaluating bilateral maritime trade volumes and coastal naval deployment frequencies across contested strategic chokepoints. Utilizing panel data regression analysis, we modeled the relationship between shipping insurance premium adjustments, commercial transit flows, and state coast guard tactical interactions from 2000 to 2015. The econometric outputs demonstrate that high mutual trade volume significantly decreases the baseline probability of conventional military escalation (Beta = -0.48, p < 0.001). However, further interaction mapping demonstrates that extreme commercial asymmetry—where one state maintains operational control over the physical maritime chokepoints—can fully neutralize this deterrent effect. The findings confirm that economic linkages only possess conflict stabilizing properties when transboundary resource dependencies are balanced symmetrically across both states. The study concludes that building multilateral maritime management compacts is necessary to insulate international commerce corridors from geopolitical rivalries.

Keywords: Commercial Interdependence, Maritime Trade, Geopolitical Chokepoints, Territorial Resiliency, Panel Data Regression, Naval Deployment

Manuscript Timeline: Received: March 20, 2016; Revised: May 18, 2016; Accepted: June 22, 2016; Published: August 14, 2016

Citation: Wei, L., & Lindstrom, A. (2016). Commercial Interdependence and Territorial Resiliency: Analyzing Maritime Trade Dynamics in Geopolitical Chokepoints. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 7(8), 622–630. DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000091

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