Quantifying the Peace Dividend: Micro-Level Economic Growth in Post-Conflict Northern Uganda

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 2, No. 3, March 2011 | pp. 18–26

DOI: 10.46882/2011/GJPCS/000022

Research Article

Quantifying the Peace Dividend: Micro-Level Economic Growth in Post-Conflict Northern Uganda

Grace Akello¹

¹Faculty of Business and Development Studies, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda

Abstract: Assessing the economic returns of peace is essential for designing sustainable regional stabilization policies. This study quantifies the micro-level "peace dividend" within agricultural communities in Northern Uganda following the displacement of insurgent networks. Utilizing a five-year longitudinal household survey matching 600 agricultural families across three districts, we employ difference-in-differences econometric modeling to measure changes in household income, crop yields, and market access. The statistical results demonstrate a robust post-conflict income recovery threshold: households returning to original farming plots experienced an average 48% increase in annual agricultural revenue (p < 0.001). Improved security along transit corridors reduced regional transportation costs by 32% ± 4.1%, facilitating access to urban markets. However, structural equation modeling shows that unresolved communal land boundaries remain a threat multiplier, causing localized violence in 18% of surveyed villages. The paper concludes that the peace dividend is heavily constrained by institutional deficiencies. We advocate for accelerated land adjudication frameworks and rural infrastructure investments to sustain economic recovery.

Keywords: peace dividend, Northern Uganda, econometric modeling, household revenue, transit corridors, land dispute

Manuscript Timeline: Received November 14, 2010; Revised January 03, 2011; Accepted February 04, 2011; Published March 11, 2011.

Citation: Akello, G. (2011). Quantifying the Peace Dividend: Micro-Level Economic Growth in Post-Conflict Northern Uganda. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 2(3), 18–26. DOI: 10.46882/2011/GJPCS/000022

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