The Geopolitics of Critical Infrastructure Concessions: Assessing Sovereign Vulnerabilities in Central Asian Logistic Hubs

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 14, No. 12, December 2023 | pp. 100–108

DOI: 10.46882/2023/GJPCS/141201

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Geopolitics of Critical Infrastructure Concessions: Assessing Sovereign Vulnerabilities in Central Asian Logistic Hubs

Authors: Aigul N. Sadykova¹, Alexei V. Volkov²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of International Relations, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan; ²Department of Information Security, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia

Abstract:
This study investigates the structural dynamics linking foreign commercial transport investments, strategic equity-debt swaps, and the incremental reduction of sovereign political autonomy within landlocked Central Asian states. Utilizing a political economy framework integrated with transit cargo metrics and transnational commercial transaction registries from 2021 to 2023, we analyze how bilateral debt leveraging alters regional security architectures. The empirical field observations indicate that the strategic conversion of unpayable infrastructure debts into long-term dry-port leases fragments local municipal administrative oversight and heightens cross-border friction. Quantitative modeling shows that landlocked nations characterized by high infrastructure credit dependency face a 45% reduction in sovereign frontier tracking capacities and a marked rise in local civil demonstrations regarding traditional land access right exclusions. The study highlights the systemic failure of regional multilateral coalitions to enforce equitable financing metrics or offer independent state credit alternatives. We conclude that sustainable regional stabilization requires establishing transparent, multilateral debt-restructuring panels that prioritize local ecological preservation and community asset protections over structural foreclosure actions.

Keywords: Infrastructure Concessions; Central Asian Logistics; Debt Leveraging; Political Economy; Sovereign Autonomy; Transit Hubs

Manuscript Timeline: Received: October 12, 2021; Revised: January 05, 2022; Accepted: March 18, 2022; Published: December 15, 2023

Citation: Sadykova, A. N., & Volkov, A. V. (2023). The Geopolitics of Critical Infrastructure Concessions: Assessing Sovereign Vulnerabilities in Central Asian Logistic Hubs. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 14(12), 100–108. DOI: 10.46882/2023/GJPCS/141201

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