The Political Ecology of Transboundary Aquifer Depletion: Assessing Geopolitical Instability along the Arabian Peninsula

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 12, No. 2, February 2021 | pp. 10–18

DOI: 10.46882/2021/GJPCS/120201

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Political Ecology of Transboundary Aquifer Depletion: Assessing Geopolitical Instability along the Arabian Peninsula

Authors: Tariq H. Al-Sabahi¹, Youssef Al-Masri²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; ²Department of Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

Abstract:
The rapid depletion of non-renewable fossil aquifers across shared underground geological structures has emerged as a primary source of strategic friction and resource securitization in the Middle East. This paper examines how shifting state agricultural expansion priorities and accelerating desertification altered groundwater management pacts along the Arabian Peninsula up to late 2020. Utilizing a hydropolitical game theory framework combined with remote-sensing satellite gravity data, we simulate the long-term regional impacts of uncoordinated deep-well drilling initiatives. Our empirical findings demonstrate that unilateral groundwater extraction policies have lowered shared aquifer levels by 42%, causing severe soil desiccation and undermining local food production networks. Our regression models establish that a lack of integrated, transboundary water-use tracking systems leaves rural communities highly vulnerable to structural displacement, raising the probability of localized border skirmishes by 52%. The article argues that managing transboundary resource conflicts requires moving away from nationalist sovereign resource claims toward an international authority that manages deep aquifers as a single shared ecological asset.

Keywords: Aquifer Depletion; Hydropolitics; Middle East Security; Resource Scarcity; Desertification; Transboundary Water

Manuscript Timeline: Received: November 15, 2019; Revised: February 02, 2020; Accepted: April 12, 2020; Published: February 18, 2021

Citation: Al-Sabahi, T. H., & Al-Masri, Y. (2021). The Political Ecology of Transboundary Aquifer Depletion: Assessing Geopolitical Instability along the Arabian Peninsula. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 12(2), 10–18. DOI: 10.46882/2021/GJPCS/120201

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