The Political Ecology of Hydropolitics along the Nile Basin: Assessing Transboundary Aquifer Vulnerabilities and Regional Securitization

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 15, No. 2, February 2025 | pp. 10–18

DOI: 10.46882/2025/GJPCS/150201

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Political Ecology of Hydropolitics along the Nile Basin: Assessing Transboundary Aquifer Vulnerabilities and Regional Securitization

Authors: Youssef Al-Masri¹, Amanuel T. Mengistu²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt; ²Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract:
The rapid construction of large-scale water storage structures and uncoordinated groundwater extraction along the upper reaches of the Nile Basin has introduced profound ecological disruptions and altered transboundary geopolitical relations in Northeast Africa. This study examines how unilateral water management policies affect downstream food security and localized community stability within bordering nations. Utilizing hydropolitical game theory models integrated with remote-sensing environmental data, we evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of altered river flow patterns and aquifer depletion. The empirical data reveals that uncoordinated upstream dam operations have reduced downstream water volumes by 45%, leading to severe soil desiccation and lower agricultural yields in critical delta farming areas. Our statistical simulations establish that the resulting reduction in agricultural productivity correlates directly with a 32% rise in household economic insecurity and localized resource disputes among farming communities. The paper demonstrates that existing transboundary water commissions lack the legal mechanisms to enforce treaty compliance. We argue that preventing interstate hydropolitical conflict requires establishing a binding multilateral governance framework that treats river basin preservation as a shared regional asset.

Keywords: Nile Basin; Hydropolitics; Aquifer Depletion; Transboundary Water; Food Security; Political Ecology.

Manuscript Timeline: Received: December 10, 2022; Revised: February 20, 2023; Accepted: April 15, 2023; Published: February 14, 2025

Citation: Al-Masri, Y., & Mengistu, A. T. (2025). The Political Ecology of Hydropolitics along the Nile Basin: Assessing Transboundary Aquifer Vulnerabilities and Regional Securitization. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 15(2), 10–18. DOI: 10.46882/2025/GJPCS/150201

Subscribe to read the full article: https://internationalscholarsjournals.org/subscribe-to-read