The Evolution of Asymmetric Insurgency in Nigeria: Assessing Tactical Shifts, Transnational Logistics, and the Failures of Non-Kinetic Stabilization in the Lake Chad Basin

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 16, No. 8, August 2026 | pp. 91–99

DOI: 10.46882/2026/GJPCS/160804

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Evolution of Asymmetric Insurgency in Nigeria: Assessing Tactical Shifts, Transnational Logistics, and the Failures of Non-Kinetic Stabilization in the Lake Chad Basin

Names of Authors: O. A. Adebayo¹, Amina J. Diallo², Grace A. Akpan³

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Pure and Applied Chemistry, University of Ibadan, Nigeria; ²Department of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Bamako, Bamako, Mali; ³Faculty of Law, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria

Abstract:
This paper investigates the changing dynamics of the asymmetric insurgency in northeastern Nigeria, focusing on the tactical shifts of non-state armed groups and the operational bottlenecks hindering state stabilization frameworks up to mid-2026. Utilizing a political ecology framework integrated with real-time border tracking indicators and satellite surveillance imagery collected across Borno State, we analyze the transnational logistics channels fueling insurgent resilience. The field evidence demonstrates that radical insurgent networks exploit porous geographical boundaries, high youth unemployment, and historical marginalization to establish resilient logistical cells. Quantitative indicators establish that frontier regions operating without synchronized, bilateral border communication matrices experience a 65% higher rate of unauthorized insurgent incursions and black-market arms accumulation. Furthermore, statistical analysis shows that state non-kinetic stabilization interventions, such as amnesty and vocational integration programs, face a 52% higher risk of collapse when they exclude local community leadership networks. The study concludes that traditional top-down military containment fails to dissolve decentralized insurgent cells. We argue that sustainable stabilization requires transitioning from unilateral fortification toward establishing synchronized regional customs checkpoints and inclusive community-led development initiatives.

Keywords: Asymmetric Insurgency; Nigeria; Lake Chad Basin; Transnational Logistics; Non-Kinetic Stabilization; Border Security

Manuscript Timeline: Received: September 15, 2024; Revised: December 02, 2024; Accepted: March 18, 2025; Published: August 28, 2026

Citation: Adebayo, O. A., Diallo, A. J., & Akpan, G. A. (2026). The Evolution of Asymmetric Insurgency in Nigeria: Assessing Tactical Shifts, Transnational Logistics, and the Failures of Non-Kinetic Stabilization in the Lake Chad Basin. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 16(8), 91–99. DOI: 10.46882/2026/GJPCS/160804

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