Climate Change, Pastoralist Migration, and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Expanding Ecological Flashpoints

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 6, No. 3, March 2015 | pp. 451–459

DOI: 10.46882/2015/GJPCS/000072

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Climate Change, Pastoralist Migration, and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Expanding Ecological Flashpoints

Names of Authors: Kwame Boateng¹, Abdi Yusuf²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Geography, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya; ²Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract: Abstract: Accelerated climate change and resulting environmental degradation are rapidly reshaping resource availability, altering migratory routes and fueling conflicts across semi-arid regions. This research investigates the intensifying clashes between migratory pastoralists and sedentary farming communities within expanding ecological flashpoints. Using a longitudinal spatial analysis alongside 400 household surveys, we tracked rainfall deviations, vegetation loss, and conflict hotspots over a ten-year timeline. The empirical models confirm that a 15% drop in seasonal rainfall below the long-term historical mean triggers an immediate 30% increase in farmer-herder clashes over water access and grazing land. Spatial mapping shows that conflict zones are moving southward, tracking changing vegetation indices. The study identifies that traditional customary land-sharing arrangements are collapsing under the pressure of land privatization policies and ecological stress. The paper emphasizes that treating these disputes solely as security matters ignores the root environmental drivers. We recommend implementing flexible rangeland management policies, early warning weather systems, and collaborative land-use frameworks to defuse resource competition.

Keywords: Climate Change, Pastoralist Migration, Farmer-Herder Conflict, Resource Competition, Environmental Degradation, Spatial Analysis, Ecological Flashpoints

Manuscript Timeline: Received: October 14, 2014; Revised: December 15, 2014; Accepted: January 20, 2015; Published: March 05, 2015

Citation: Boateng, K., & Yusuf, A. (2015). Climate Change, Pastoralist Migration, and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Expanding Ecological Flashpoints. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 6(3), 451–459. DOI: 10.46882/2015/GJPCS/000072

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