International Journal of Agricultural Sciences

International Journal of Agricultural Sciences Vol. 2 (1), pp. 040-045, January 2012, ISSN: 2167-0447 ©2012 International Scholars Journals

Full Length Research Paper

Balance of rice for the Mekong Delta – Viet Nam to 2050 in terms of industrialization and climate change

Nguyen Van Song and Do Thi Diep

Head of Department of Resources & Environment Economics Hanoi University of Agriculture – Vietnam

Tel: (0084)438760222 Home: (0084)438766448 Mobile: 0984148879 Fax:(0084)438276522

*Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]

Received December 11, 2011; Accepted January 3, 2012

Abstract

Rice area of ​​the Mekong Delta (MD) has decreased in recent years, especially the shift from rice land into land for industrial parks and saline land due to sea level rise and effects of climate change. In addition, the rate of population growth also requires increasingly high demand for rice in the region. By using the model, results showed that the population of the Mekong Delta will be at 26,956.5 thousand inhabitants, paddy land is 993.9 thousand hectares, rice balance will achieve 4729.9 thousand tons in 2050. Scenarios of sea level rise due to the impact of climate change shows that the sea level rise to 0.3 m in 2050, corresponding to the rice area is reduced by 0.6 million hectares, the paddy land remained only 851.6 thousand hectares, balance rice  reached 2.6 million tons. Although rice yield and output increased due to intensive investment and increasing the use of rice land, but the rate of declining rice land under the influence of climate change and industrialization plus increasing population is faster led to rice balance in 2050 only was 2.5 million tons. This is a huge pressure to national food security in the near future. So the strategy set for the Mekong Delta in the near future is to stabilize rice area, slowing population growth and application of scientific and technical measures to improve productivity and rice output.

Keywords:  rice land, population, rice output, industrialization, climate change.