Natural Resource Abundance and Civil Conflict: A Comparative Econometric Modeling of Institutional Capacity Breakdown

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 6, No. 10, October 2015 | pp. 514–522

DOI: 10.46882/2015/GJPCS/000079

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Natural Resource Abundance and Civil Conflict: A Comparative Econometric Modeling of Institutional Capacity Breakdown

Names of Authors: Yusuf Al-Kazi¹, Ling Wei²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Economics, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq; ²School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China

Abstract: Abstract: The resource curse hypothesis suggests that an abundance of point-source natural resources increases a nation's vulnerability to civil war and institutional fragility. This study presents a comparative econometric analysis investigating the causal links between high oil and mineral export dependencies and conflict initiation. Using panel data from 65 developing nations between 1995 and 2014, we modeled the relationships between primary commodity export ratios, institutional quality indices, and conflict occurrences. The econometric models confirm that a 10% increase in oil export dependence raises the baseline probability of internal conflict by 4.2% (p < 0.01). However, further interaction analysis reveals that this effect is entirely mediated by institutional capacity. In nations with strong regulatory frameworks and transparent fiscal oversight, resource wealth does not correlate with conflict initiation. The study demonstrates that natural resource wealth triggers conflict primarily by funding rebel groups and weakening state administrative capacity through corruption. The paper concludes that international transparency standards, such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, are essential for preventing resource-driven conflicts.

Keywords: Resource Curse, Civil Conflict, Econometric Modeling, Institutional Capacity, Primary Commodities, Conflict Financing, Transparency Standards

Manuscript Timeline: Received: May 12, 2015; Revised: July 20, 2015; Accepted: August 22, 2015; Published: October 05, 2015

Citation: Al-Kazi, Y., & Wei, L. (2015). Natural Resource Abundance and Civil Conflict: A Comparative Econometric Modeling of Institutional Capacity Breakdown. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 6(10), 514–522. DOI: 10.46882/2015/GJPCS/000079

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