Climate Volatility and Agrarian Security: Tracking Pastoralist Re-displacement in Arid Transit Corridors

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 7, No. 9, September 2016 | pp. 631–639

DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000092

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Climate Volatility and Agrarian Security: Tracking Pastoralist Re-displacement in Arid Transit Corridors

Names of Authors: Kwame Boateng¹, Abdi Yusuf²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Geography, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya; ²Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract: Abstract: Accelerating climatic variability and resulting rangeland degradation are systematically disrupting customary nomadic migration vectors, generating intense resource competition across semiarid corridors. This study investigates the escalating structural friction between displaced pastoralists and sedentary agricultural communities over access to declining grazing ranges. Utilizing a longitudinal geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis paired with 500 rural household surveys, we mapped vegetation health indices, rainfall anomalies, and community conflict records from 2005 to 2015. The empirical models demonstrate that a 15% drop in seasonal rainfall layers below historical baselines triggers a 32% increase in violent inter-communal encounters within a 45-day window (p < 0.001). Spatial mapping shows that conflict zones are concentrating near permanent downstream river basins due to severe upland rangeland depletion. The findings show that local land privatization initiatives compromise traditional resource sharing compacts under environmental stress. The paper argues that managing these resource encounters purely as border security issues fails to address the root ecological causes. We recommend implementing multi-lateral grazing rangeland governance frameworks.

Keywords: Climate Volatility, Agrarian Security, Pastoralist Re-displacement, GIS Spatial Analysis, Resource Competition, Rangeland Governance

Manuscript Timeline: Received: April 10, 2016; Revised: June 15, 2016; Accepted: July 20, 2016; Published: September 06, 2016

Citation: Boateng, K., & Yusuf, A. (2016). Climate Volatility and Agrarian Security: Tracking Pastoralist Re-displacement in Arid Transit Corridors. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 7(9), 631–639. DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000092

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