Regional Hegemony and Security Dilemmas: Analyzing Naval Infrastructure Expansion in the South China Sea

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 3, No. 9, September 2012 | pp. 180–189

DOI: 10.46882/2012/GJPCS/000041

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Regional Hegemony and Security Dilemmas: Analyzing Naval Infrastructure Expansion in the South China Sea

Names of Authors: Min-Ho Chen¹, Takeshi Saito²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of International Relations, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; ²School of International Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract: The rapid expansion of maritime defense structures in contested waters presents a critical threat to regional equilibrium and international freedom of navigation. This study analyzes the structural escalation of security dilemmas across the South China Sea following asymmetric island-building activities between 2010 and 2011. Utilizing operational game-theoretic simulations alongside satellite maritime tracking databases, we mapped state interactions, naval deployments, and exclusive economic zone incursions. The empirical models confirm that a 20% expansion in deep-water berths matches a corresponding 35% increase in near-miss encounters between state coast guards. The quantitative analysis demonstrates that overlapping maritime claims generate severe structural vulnerabilities, lowering the threshold for accidental kinetic conflict (Beta = 0.44, p < 0.01). The research shows that regional standard bodies remain hamstrung by internal consensus requirements and lack binding arbitration mechanisms. The paper concludes that mitigating this strategic instability requires establishing a multilateral code of conduct backed by hotlines between operational theater commands.

Keywords: Regional Hegemony, Security Dilemma, South China Sea, Maritime Infrastructure, Game Theory, Freedom of Navigation, Conflict Escalation

Manuscript Timeline: Received: May 12, 2012; Revised: July 18, 2012; Accepted: August 20, 2012; Published: September 04, 2012

Citation: Chen, M. H., & Saito, T. (2012). Regional Hegemony and Security Dilemmas: Analyzing Naval Infrastructure Expansion in the South China Sea. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 3(9), 261–269. DOI: 10.46882/2012/GJPCS/000041

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