Economic Interdependence and Maritime Dispute Deterrence: Analyzing Trade Resiliency Across East Asian Waters

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 4, No. 3, March 2013 | pp. 235–243

DOI: 10.46882/2013/GJPCS/000048

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Economic Interdependence and Maritime Dispute Deterrence: Analyzing Trade Resiliency Across East Asian Waters

Names of Authors: Ling Wei¹, Kenji Takahashi²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China; ²Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract: The liberal peace thesis argues that deep commercial interdependence creates significant economic costs that deter state actors from initiating armed border conflicts. This study evaluates this thesis by analyzing bilateral trade flows and maritime confrontation frequencies across competitive trade corridors from 1995 to 2011. Utilizing panel data regression analysis, we modeled the relationships between shipping insurance rates, maritime trade indices, and state coast guard skirmishes. The statistical outputs demonstrate that high bilateral trade volume significantly decreases the probability of militarized ocean disputes (Beta = -0.48, p < 0.001). However, further interaction tracking reveals that asymmetric trade vulnerabilities—where one nation controls vital choke points—can reverse this deterrent effect. The findings confirm that economic ties only stabilize relations when trade vulnerabilities are balanced across both states. The study concludes that multilateral maritime safety regimes are necessary to preserve the peaceful benefits of trade interdependence.

Keywords: Economic Interdependence, Maritime Dispute, Trade Flow, Liberal Peace, Panel Data, Asymmetric Vulnerability, East Asia

Manuscript Timeline: Received: November 28, 2012; Revised: January 15, 2013; Accepted: February 10, 2013; Published: March 12, 2013

Citation: Wei, L., & Takahashi, K. (2013). Economic Interdependence and Maritime Dispute Deterrence: Analyzing Trade Resiliency Across East Asian Waters. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 4(3), 235–243. DOI: 10.46882/2013/GJPCS/000048

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