Predicting Civil War Recurrence: The Role of Ex-Combatant Reintegration and Resource Allocation

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 1, No. 6, June 2010 | pp. 107–115

DOI: 10.46882/2010/GJPCS/000013

Research Article

Predicting Civil War Recurrence: The Role of Ex-Combatant Reintegration and Resource Allocation

Mateo Gomez¹, Siddharth Nair²

¹Department of International Development, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia

²Center for Policy Research, New Delhi, India

Abstract: The fragility of post-conflict states is heavily influenced by the economic structural pathways available to demobilized populations. This study constructs a predictive hazard model to isolate variables driving civil war recurrence, focusing on the quality of economic reintegration for ex-combatants. Panel data spanning 42 post-conflict nations from 1980 to 2008 were utilized to run Cox proportional hazards regressions. The statistical results show that a 10% increase in direct vocational funding for ex-combatants decreases the hazard rate of conflict relapse by 18% (p < 0.01). Crucially, the presence of localized point-source natural resources (such as alluvial diamonds or timber) acted as a major threat multiplier, increasing recurrence probability by 34% in the absence of international monitoring. The empirical data highlights a critical threshold: reintegration programs lasting less than 24 months show a failure rate of 55% ± 4.6% within five years of peace accord signings. The study concludes that durable peace requires long-term, structurally sound economic diversification strategies rather than short-term cash-disbursing demobilization schemes.

Keywords: conflict recurrence, hazard modeling, ex-combatant reintegration, vocational funding, resource curse, peace duration

Manuscript Timeline: Received February 28, 2010; Revised April 05, 2010; Accepted May 10, 2010; Published June 15, 2010.

Citation: Gomez, M., & Nair, S. (2010). Predicting Civil War Recurrence: The Role of Ex-Combatant Reintegration and Resource Allocation. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 1(6), 107–115. DOI: 10.46882/2010/GJPCS/000013

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