Elections behind Barbed Wire: Assessing Democratization and Violence Dynamics in Sri Lanka

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 1, No. 10, October 2010 | pp. 143–151

DOI: 10.46882/2010/GJPCS/000017

Research Article

Elections behind Barbed Wire: Assessing Democratization and Violence Dynamics in Sri Lanka

Kalingan Ratwatte¹

¹International Centre for Ethnic Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract: Conducting democratic transitions quickly after major military actions can unintentionally reopen historical societal fault lines. This empirical research investigates the structural conditions under which post-conflict elections act either as stabilizers or triggers for localized political violence in northern Sri Lanka. Using district-level polling logs, demographic datasets, and security reports from 2009 to 2010, we employ multivariate logistic regressions to analyze voter intimidation patterns. The findings indicate that districts with high military troop density reported a 36% lower incidence of overt inter-party violence but a 52% higher rate of systemic voter turnout suppression (p < 0.01). The statistical variance demonstrates that structural security measures often transform physical violence into psychological coercion (mean coercion index of 3.8 ± 0.4). The paper argues that rushing competitive elections without resolving underlying minority land grievances and regional autonomy demands leads to unstable democratic outcomes. The study recommends implementing independent, internationally monitored election administration bodies before organizing post-war transitions.

Keywords: post-conflict elections, democratization, Sri Lanka, voter suppression, minority grievances, political stability

Manuscript Timeline: Received June 02, 2010; Revised July 22, 2010; Accepted August 30, 2010; Published October 08, 2010.

Citation: Ratwatte, K. (2010). Elections behind Barbed Wire: Assessing Democratization and Violence Dynamics in Sri Lanka. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 1(10), 143–151. DOI: 10.46882/2010/GJPCS/000017

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