Evaluating the Efficacy of Regional Sanctions on Defusing Constitutional Crises in West Africa

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 4, No. 8, August 2013 | pp. 280–288

DOI: 10.46882/2013/GJPCS/000053

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Evaluating the Efficacy of Regional Sanctions on Defusing Constitutional Crises in West Africa

Names of Authors: Chinedu Okechukwu¹, Fatou Sow²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria; ²Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, Dakar, Senegal

Abstract: Abstract: The deployment of economic and diplomatic sanctions by regional bodies remains a primary mechanism for enforcing democratic norms during constitutional crises. This study evaluates the structural impact of regional trade blockades and asset freezes implemented during undemocratic transfers of power between 2010 and 2012. Utilizing an econometric event-study methodology alongside 28 interviews with regional diplomats, we analyzed macroeconomic indicators and elite compliance timelines. The quantitative outputs confirm that comprehensive trade restrictions accelerate back-channel negotiation timelines by 45% compared to diplomatic condemnation alone (p < 0.05). However, cross-sectional survey data from 500 border-zone households demonstrate that trade embargoes inflict severe asymmetric economic harm on civilian populations. Specifically, border communities reported an average 64% increase in basic food commodity pricing index values within 30 days of sanction implementation. The regression models indicate that high levels of cross-border smuggling significantly weaken the structural leverage of economic blockades (R² = 0.41, p < 0.01). The study concludes that targeted institutional asset freezes are more effective than broad trade embargoes at achieving elite compliance without decimating human security.

Keywords: Regional Sanctions, Constitutional Crises, West Africa, Democratic Governance, Trade Embargo, Human Security, Asymmetric Impact

Manuscript Timeline: Received: March 14, 2013; Revised: May 22, 2013; Accepted: June 19, 2013; Published: August 04, 2013

Citation: Okechukwu, C., & Sow, F. (2013). Evaluating the Efficacy of Regional Sanctions on Defusing Constitutional Crises in West Africa. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 4(8), 280–288. DOI: 10.46882/2013/GJPCS/000053

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