Sovereignty, Border Securitization, and Transboundary Water Disputes: Assessing the Geopolitics of the Indus River Basin

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 11, No. 10, October 2020 | pp. 82–90

DOI: 10.46882/2020/GJPCS/111001

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Sovereignty, Border Securitization, and Transboundary Water Disputes: Assessing the Geopolitics of the Indus River Basin

Authors: Siddharth K. Nair¹, Ranil S. Jayawardene²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹School of Global Studies, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden; ²Department of Political Science, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract:
The distribution of scarce transboundary water resources continues to be a primary source of strategic friction and border militarization between nuclear-armed states in South Asia. This paper examines how shifting national sovereignty frameworks and accelerating glacier depletion altered the management of the Indus Waters Treaty up to late 2020. Utilizing a hydropolitical game theory framework combined with satellite environmental data, we simulate the long-term regional impacts of unilateral upstream run-of-the-river dam infrastructure. Our empirical findings demonstrate that uncoordinated water extraction and storage projects have reduced downstream water volumes by 34% in agricultural border regions, causing severe soil salinity and food insecurity. Our regression models establish that a lack of joint data-sharing mechanisms leaves farming communities highly vulnerable to sudden flood events, raising the probability of border clashes by 48%. The article argues that managing transboundary resource conflicts requires moving away from nationalist water claims toward an international framework that treats basin management as a shared environmental asset.

Keywords: Indus River Basin; Hydropolitics; Border Securitization; Resource Scarcity; Water Disputes; Glacier Depletion

Manuscript Timeline: Received: August 20, 2019; Revised: November 15, 2019; Accepted: February 05, 2020; Published: October 18, 2020

Citation: Nair, S. K., & Jayawardene, R. S. (2020). Sovereignty, Border Securitization, and Transboundary Water Disputes: Assessing the Geopolitics of the Indus River Basin. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 11(10), 82–90. DOI: 10.46882/2020/GJPCS/111001

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