The Geopolitics of Proxy Subversion: Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Military Assistance on Insurgency Duration in Libya

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 11, No. 6, June 2020 | pp. 46–54

DOI: 10.46882/2020/GJPCS/110601

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Geopolitics of Proxy Subversion: Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Military Assistance on Insurgency Duration in Libya

Authors: Youssef Al-Masri¹, Viktor I. Morozov²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt; ²Department of International Security Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract:
The expansion of internationalized civil conflict following the collapse of centralized state power in Libya has turned localized rivalries into an intense proxy war. This study examines how competing foreign military assistance programs, automated drone shipments, and private mercenary deployments impacted the duration and scale of fighting from 2018 to early 2020. Employing a structural realist framework alongside military cargo intelligence databases, we calculate the material assets provided to competing domestic factions. The findings reveal that asymmetric external logistics support, combined with high-altitude drone operations, dismantled domestic political negotiation initiatives. Quantitative tracking establishes that whenever foreign arms shipments increased, the duration of local military stalemates extended by an average of 18 months, causing a 52% surge in civilian casualties within urban conflict zones. The paper demonstrates that international weapons embargoes remain completely ineffective due to a lack of enforcement mechanisms within maritime monitoring platforms. We argue that ending state fragmentation requires transforming global diplomacy to penalize external sponsor states through targeted international economic sanctions.

Keywords: Proxy Subversion; Libya Conflict; Military Assistance; Insurgency Duration; Weapons Embargo; State Fragmentation

Manuscript Timeline: Received: July 15, 2019; Revised: October 05, 2019; Accepted: December 18, 2019; Published: June 15, 2020

Citation: Al-Masri, Y., & Morozov, V. I. (2020). The Geopolitics of Proxy Subversion: Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Military Assistance on Insurgency Duration in Libya. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 11(6), 46–54. DOI: 10.46882/2020/GJPCS/110601

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