The Youth Bulge as a Double-Edged Sword: Assessing Civic Engagement versus Radicalization in Urban Kenya

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 1, No. 11, November 2010 | pp. 161–169

DOI: 10.46882/2010/GJPCS/000019

Research Article

The Youth Bulge as a Double-Edged Sword: Assessing Civic Engagement versus Radicalization in Urban Kenya

Mwangi J. Mwangi¹

¹Department of Sociology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract: Expanding youth demographics are frequently framed exclusively as security vulnerabilities within East African conflict discourse. This study re-evaluates the youth bulge theory by exploring conditions that divert underemployed urban youth away from radicalization and toward constructive civic actions in Mombasa and Nairobi. Survey instruments were administered to 650 youth participants using a stratified spatial sampling method. Structural equation modeling indicated that while economic underemployment remains a severe risk factor, access to secular community-based youth clubs reduced vulnerability to radicalized recruiting by 54% (p < 0.001). The empirical models show that the presence of an active municipal youth budget significantly moderates the relationship between unemployment and political violence (R² change = 0.22). The data shows a mean community engagement score of 3.2 ± 0.6 among youth who regularized their participation in local governance forums. The study concludes that youth populations are not inherently violent; rather, institutional openness determines whether demographics lead to civic development or security crises.

Keywords: youth bulge, civic engagement, radicalization, urban Kenya, youth unemployment, institutional openness

Manuscript Timeline: Received July 11, 2010; Revised September 03, 2010; Accepted October 01, 2010; Published November 12, 2010.

Citation: Mwangi, M. J. (2010). The Youth Bulge as a Double-Edged Sword: Assessing Civic Engagement versus Radicalization in Urban Kenya. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 1(11), 161–169. DOI: 10.46882/2010/GJPCS/000019

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