Illicit Small Arms Trajectories: Evaluating Regulatory Blindspots in Inter-State Freight Verification Compacts

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 9, No. 4, April 2018 | pp. 802–810

DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/0000111

Article Type: Policy Analysis Paper

Title: Illicit Small Arms Trajectories: Evaluating Regulatory Blindspots in Inter-State Freight Verification Compacts

Names of Authors: Stefan Lindqvist¹, Musa Ibrahim²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; ²Department of Political Science, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria

Abstract: Abstract: The diversion of authorized state weapon transportations into illicit sub-national distribution channels represents a major operational gap in international security coordination frameworks. This policy analysis evaluates the strategic enforcement performance and institutional blockages within contemporary trans-regional end-user certificate verification regimes. By analyzing global firearm tracking registries, cargo seizure files, and regional customs intelligence sharing protocols from 2010 to 2017, we evaluate structural tracking vulnerabilities across key maritime and overland transport vectors. The policy assessment demonstrates that fragmented international database interoperability enables illicit brokerage networks to execute fraudulent certificate revisions with minimal detection risk. Quantitative regression tracking reveals that implementing mandatory real-time digital container marking systems decreases successful illegal weapon conversions by 38% (Beta = -0.45, p < 0.001). The analysis identifies a critical lack of standardized judicial penalties across contiguous transit states, which systematically compromises regional interdiction initiatives. The paper recommends establishing a binding trans-regional tracking compact supported by automated ballistic profile networks.

Keywords: Small Arms Trajectories, Freight Verification, Policy Analysis, Weapon Diversion, Database Interoperability, Regional Interdiction

Manuscript Timeline: Received: November 15, 2017; Revised: January 18, 2018; Accepted: February 22, 2018; Published: April 19, 2018

Citation: Lindqvist, S., & Ibrahim, M. (2018). Illicit Small Arms Trajectories: Evaluating Regulatory Blindspots in Inter-State Freight Verification Compacts. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 9(4), 802–810. DOI: 10.46882/2018/GJPCS/0000111

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