Analyzing the Geopolitical Dynamics of Gas Pipeline Security and Sovereignty Disputes in Eastern Europe

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 5, No. 6, June 2014 | pp. 370–378

DOI: 10.46882/2014/GJPCS/000063

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Analyzing the Geopolitical Dynamics of Gas Pipeline Security and Sovereignty Disputes in Eastern Europe

Names of Authors: Viktor Kovac¹, Mirela Hasanovic²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of International Relations, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; ²Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract: Abstract: The strategic dependency of European states on external natural gas infrastructures has increasingly transformed transit pipelines into key levers of geopolitical coercion. This research examines the structural mechanisms of pipeline diplomacy and the sovereign vulnerabilities arising from transit pricing disputes within Eastern Europe. Using game-theoretic strategic modeling, maritime export tracking data, and regional energy policy declarations from 2008 to 2013, we analyzed state behavior during supply interruptions. The empirical models confirm that an asymmetrical reliance on a single energy exporter increases state vulnerability to diplomatic coercion by 55% during winter heating seasons. The study indicates that transit infrastructure vulnerabilities create strong structural incentives for state suppliers to pursue alternative, bypass transit routes. The findings demonstrate that regional energy integration and reverse-flow pipeline capabilities significantly decrease the success rate of geopolitical coercion attempts (Beta = -0.38, p < 0.01). The paper concludes that establishing a unified European energy procurement framework is essential for insulating economic networks from regional security vulnerabilities.

Keywords: Energy Infrastructure, Pipeline Diplomacy, Gas Disputes, Eastern Europe, Asymmetrical Dependency, Geopolitics, Sovereign Vulnerability

Manuscript Timeline: Received: January 15, 2014; Revised: March 22, 2014; Accepted: April 18, 2014; Published: June 08, 2014

Citation: Kovac, V., & Hasanovic, M. (2014). Analyzing the Geopolitical Dynamics of Gas Pipeline Security and Sovereignty Disputes in Eastern Europe. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 5(6), 370–378. DOI: 10.46882/2014/GJPCS/000063

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