The Political Ecology of Transboundary Subterranean Water Systems: Assessing Sub-National Geopolitical Friction across Arid Demarcation Zones

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 16, No. 2, February 2026 | pp. 10–18

DOI: 10.46882/2026/GJPCS/160201

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Political Ecology of Transboundary Subterranean Water Systems: Assessing Sub-National Geopolitical Friction across Arid Demarcation Zones

Authors: Tariq H. Al-Sabahi¹, Youssef Al-Masri²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Political Science, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; ²Department of Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt

Abstract:
The accelerating extraction of non-renewable subterranean water resources along unmapped border geological configurations has emerged as a primary driver of structural resource securitization and localized communal violence across arid demarcation zones. This study analyzes how unilateral deep-well agricultural expansions and shifting state climate adaptation mandates alter regional stability metrics. Utilizing hydropolitical game theory models integrated with remote-sensing satellite gravity data collected up to early 2026, we simulate the long-term regional impacts of uncoordinated deep-well drilling initiatives. Our empirical findings demonstrate that unilateral groundwater extraction policies have lowered shared aquifer pressure levels by 45%, leading to severe soil desiccation and lower agricultural yields in critical delta farming areas. Our statistical simulations establish that the resulting reduction in agricultural productivity correlates directly with a 32% rise in household economic insecurity and localized resource disputes among farming communities. The paper demonstrates that existing transboundary water treaties lack specific legal mechanisms to enforce groundwater compliance. We argue that preventing interstate hydropolitical conflict requires establishing a binding multilateral governance framework that treats deep water basin preservation as a shared regional asset.

Keywords: Subterranean Water; Hydropolitics; Aquifer Depletion; Demarcation Zones; Resource Scarcity; Political Ecology.

Manuscript Timeline: Received: March 12, 2024; Revised: June 05, 2024; Accepted: August 14, 2024; Published: February 14, 2026

Citation: Al-Sabahi, T. H., & Al-Masri, Y. (2026). The Political Ecology of Transboundary Subterranean Water Systems: Assessing Sub-National Geopolitical Friction across Arid Demarcation Zones. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 16(2), 10–18. DOI: 10.46882/2026/GJPCS/160201

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