Natural Resource Abundance and Civil War: A Comparative Econometric Evaluation of Conflict Financing Mechanisms

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 7, No. 11, November 2016 | pp. 649–657

DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000094

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Natural Resource Abundance and Civil War: A Comparative Econometric Evaluation of Conflict Financing Mechanisms

Names of Authors: Yusuf Al-Kazi¹, Sophia Miller²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Economics, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq; ²Department of International Development, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom

Abstract: Abstract: The structural relationships defining the resource curse hypothesis suggest that an over-dependence on point-source primary commodities elevates a nation’s vulnerability to civil conflict initiation. This study presents a comparative econometric analysis investigating the causal pathways linking high mineral and hydrocarbon export concentrations to sub-national insurgent mobilization. Using a longitudinal panel dataset from 65 developing nations between 1995 and 2015, we modeled interactions between resource export ratios, regulatory quality indices, and conflict occurrences. The econometric models confirm that a 10% increase in oil export dependency raises the baseline probability of internal conflict by 4.2% (p < 0.01). However, further interaction tracking reveals that this effect is entirely mediated by institutional administrative capacity. In nations with strong regulatory oversight and transparent fiscal management, resource abundance does not correlate with conflict initiation. The study demonstrates that natural resource wealth triggers conflict primarily by funding rebel groups and weakening state administrative capacity through corruption. The paper concludes that implementing international transparency frameworks is essential for preventing resource-driven conflicts.

Keywords: Resource Curse, Conflict Financing, Civil War, Econometric Evaluation, Primary Commodities, Institutional Capacity, Transparency Frameworks

Manuscript Timeline: Received: June 15, 2016; Revised: August 22, 2016; Accepted: September 18, 2016; Published: November 12, 2016

Citation: Al-Kazi, Y., & Miller, S. (2016). Natural Resource Abundance and Civil War: A Comparative Econometric Evaluation of Conflict Financing Mechanisms. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 7(11), 649–657. DOI: 10.46882/2016/GJPCS/000094

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