Evaluating International Criminal Court (ICC) Interventions on Active Insurgent Behavior in Sudan

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 2, No. 6, June 2011 | pp. 45–53

DOI: 10.46882/2011/GJPCS/000025

Research Article

Evaluating International Criminal Court (ICC) Interventions on Active Insurgent Behavior in Sudan

Fatima Al-Nur¹

¹Department of Public Law, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan

Abstract: The deterrent effect of international criminal indictments on active combatants remains highly contested within peace and conflict studies. This research examines how the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants issued for state actors impact tactical insurgent violence and negotiation behaviors in Sudan. Utilizing conflict event databases and text analysis of official rebel communications from 2008 to 2010, we deploy time-series intervention models to measure behavioral shifts. The statistical analysis reveals that following the issuance of formal warrants, localized insurgent attacks against government infrastructure increased by 31% (p < 0.05), driven by rebel perceptions of enhanced international legitimacy. However, the data also indicates a 45% reduction in rebel participation in regional peace talks within the immediate 180 days post-indictment. The empirical variance demonstrates that while international legal mechanisms weaken state diplomatic standing, they can unintentionally harden combatant positions, extending the duration of active hostilities by a factor of 1.4 ± 0.2. The study recommends aligning judicial actions with active diplomatic strategies.

Keywords: International Criminal Court, Sudan conflict, deterrence theory, rebel behavior, peace negotiations, tactical violence

Manuscript Timeline: Received February 02, 2011; Revised March 22, 2011; Accepted April 28, 2011; Published June 18, 2011.

Citation: Al-Nur, F. (2011). Evaluating International Criminal Court (ICC) Interventions on Active Insurgent Behavior in Sudan. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 2(6), 45–53. DOI: 10.46882/2011/GJPCS/000025

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