The Political Ecology of Transboundary Aquifer Depletion along the Indus Basin: Assessing Sub-National Resource Friction

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 15, No. 2, February 2024 | pp. 10–18

DOI: 10.46882/2024/GJPCS/150201

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Political Ecology of Transboundary Aquifer Depletion along the Indus Basin: Assessing Sub-National Resource Friction

Authors: Siddharth K. Nair¹, Ranil S. Jayawardene²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹School of Global Studies, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden; ²Department of Political Science, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract:
The rapid extraction of deep transboundary groundwater reserves along the shared borders of the Indus Basin has introduced profound ecological disruptions and altered transboundary geopolitical relations in South Asia. This study examines how unilateral subterranean water management policies affect downstream food security and localized community stability within bordering nations. Utilizing hydropolitical game theory models integrated with remote-sensing environmental data, we evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of altered aquifer pressure gradients. The empirical data reveals that uncoordinated upstream tubewell operations have reduced downstream aquifer levels by 45%, leading to severe soil desiccation and lower agricultural yields in critical delta farming areas. Our statistical simulations establish that the resulting reduction in agricultural productivity correlates directly with a 32% rise in household economic insecurity and localized resource disputes among farming communities. The paper demonstrates that existing transboundary water treaties lack specific legal mechanisms to enforce groundwater compliance. We argue that preventing interstate hydropolitical conflict requires establishing a binding multilateral governance framework that treats deep water basin preservation as a shared regional asset.

Keywords: Indus Aquifers; Groundwater Depletion; Hydropolitics; Subterranean Resource; Food Security; Political Ecology

Manuscript Timeline: Received: December 10, 2021; Revised: February 20, 2022; Accepted: April 15, 2022; Published: February 14, 2024

Citation: Nair, S. K., & Jayawardene, R. S. (2024). The Political Ecology of Transboundary Aquifer Depletion along the Indus Basin: Assessing Sub-National Resource Friction. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 15(2), 10–18. DOI: 10.46882/2024/GJPCS/150201

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