The Political Economy of Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Assessing the Impact of Large-Scale Commercial Extraction on Agrarian Polarization in Post-War South Sudan

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 15, No. 5, May 2025 | pp. 37–45

DOI: 10.46882/2025/GJPCS/150501

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Political Economy of Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Assessing the Impact of Large-Scale Commercial Extraction on Agrarian Polarization in Post-War South Sudan

Authors: Sibusiso K. Khumalo¹, John L. Deng²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Department of Public Law, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; ²Institute for Peace, Development and Security Studies, University of Juba, Juba, South Sudan

Abstract:
Post-conflict states frequently prioritize selling natural resource concessions to attract foreign direct investment and generate immediate tax revenues for state rebuilding projects. This paper examines the long-term socioeconomic outcomes of this development model in South Sudan, evaluating how modern commercial oil and agricultural concessions impact agrarian land tenure and local community stability. Utilizing extensive agrarian mapping software combined with localized household wealth surveys conducted between 2022 and 2024, we measure the structural shifts in rural land ownership patterns. The quantitative analysis reveals that large-scale state allocations of fertile land to international corporate syndicates have displaced substantial numbers of smallholder farmers, creating deep-seated socio-economic grievances. Our regression models establish that rural districts with high corporate land concentration show a 42% increase in localized land tenure disputes and higher relative deprivation indices. The study demonstrates that prioritizing elite-driven commercial investment without safeguarding traditional communal land rights accelerates rural-urban migration and exacerbates social polarization. We argue that sustainable post-conflict reconstruction requires establishing strict legal frameworks that protect traditional property ownership and mandate inclusive local profit-sharing.

Keywords: Political Economy; Post-Conflict Reconstruction; Resource Extraction; Land Tenure; South Sudan; Structural Inequality.

Manuscript Timeline: Received: March 12, 2023; Revised: May 28, 2023; Accepted: July 19, 2023; Published: May 20, 2025

Citation: Khumalo, S. K., & Deng, J. L. (2025). The Political Economy of Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Assessing the Impact of Large-Scale Commercial Extraction on Agrarian Polarization in Post-War South Sudan. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 15(5), 37–45. DOI: 10.46882/2025/GJPCS/150501

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