Climate Variability and Pastoralist Displacement: Analyzing Grazing Resource Tensions in the Horn of Africa

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 4, No. 5, May 2013 | pp. 253–261

DOI: 10.46882/2013/GJPCS/000050

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Climate Variability and Pastoralist Displacement: Analyzing Grazing Resource Tensions in the Horn of Africa

Names of Authors: Abdi Yusuf¹, Linda van der Meer²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; ²Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Hague, Netherlands

Abstract: Escalating climate anomalies and the resulting environmental degradation are disrupting traditional migration paths, catalyzing resource conflicts between nomadic herders and settled farmers. This study investigates the intensifying clashes over water resources and grazing rights within the Horn of Africa. Utilizing a longitudinal geographic information system (GIS) analysis paired with 450 household surveys, we mapped rainfall anomalies, vegetation indices, and regional conflict hotspots from 2001 to 2011. The empirical models demonstrate that a 15% drop in seasonal rainfall levels below historical averages triggers a 32% increase in inter-communal rangeland clashes within a 60-day window. Spatial data confirm that conflict zones are moving toward permanent river basins due to widespread vegetation loss. The findings show that local land privatization policies weaken traditional resource-sharing agreements under ecological stress. The paper argues that handling these disputes purely as border security issues misses the underlying ecological causes. We recommend implementing flexible cross-border grazing arrangements and automated early warning weather networks to reduce resource competition.

Keywords: Climate Variability, Pastoralist Displacement, Grazing Rights, Horn of Africa, Environmental Degradation, Spatial Analysis, Resource Conflict

Manuscript Timeline: Received: December 19, 2012; Revised: February 14, 2013; Accepted: March 11, 2013; Published: May 08, 2013

Citation: Yusuf, A., & van der Meer, L. (2013). Climate Variability and Pastoralist Displacement: Analyzing Grazing Resource Tensions in the Horn of Africa. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 4(5), 253–261. DOI: 10.46882/2013/GJPCS/000050

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