Economic Interdependence and Territorial Disputes: Analyzing Asymmetric Trade Flows in East Asian Seas

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 5, No. 3, March 2014 | pp. 343–351

DOI: 10.46882/2014/GJPCS/000060

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: Economic Interdependence and Territorial Disputes: Analyzing Asymmetric Trade Flows in East Asian Seas

Names of Authors: Ling Wei¹, Priya Nair²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹School of International Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China; ²Department of Sociology, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi, India

Abstract: Abstract: The liberal peace thesis suggests that deep economic integration acts as a powerful structural deterrent against the escalation of militarized border disputes. This study evaluates this claim by analyzing bilateral trade flows and maritime confrontation frequencies across volatile shipping lanes from 1998 to 2012. Utilizing panel data regression analysis, we modeled the relationship between shipping insurance premium fluctuations, maritime trade volume indices, and coast guard interactions. The statistical models confirm that high total trade volume significantly decreases the probability of conventional militarized disputes (Beta = -0.47, p < 0.001). However, further interaction analysis reveals that highly asymmetric trade relationships—where one nation depends disproportionately on the other for critical resources—can amplify political vulnerabilities. Quantitative tracking shows that states facing extreme trade asymmetry exhibit higher rates of defense infrastructure mobilization (R² = 0.44, p < 0.05). The study concludes that economic ties only stabilize relations when the costs of disruption are distributed symmetrically. The paper recommends building multilateral maritime management treaties to decouple trade infrastructure from territorial disputes.

Keywords: Economic Interdependence, Territorial Disputes, Asymmetric Trade, Maritime Safety, Panel Data Regression, Liberal Peace, East Asian Security

Manuscript Timeline: Received: October 11, 2013; Revised: December 15, 2013; Accepted: January 20, 2013; Published: March 05, 2014

Citation: Wei, L., & Nair, P. (2014). Economic Interdependence and Territorial Disputes: Analyzing Asymmetric Trade Flows in East Asian Seas. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 5(3), 343–351. DOI: 10.46882/2014/GJPCS/000060

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