The Architecture of Transnational Light Weapons Proliferation: Tracking Illicit Distribution Supply Loops in the Horn of Africa

Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies | Vol. 14, No. 4, April 2023 | pp. 28–36

DOI: 10.46882/2023/GJPCS/140401

Article Type: Original Research Paper

Title: The Architecture of Transnational Light Weapons Proliferation: Tracking Illicit Distribution Supply Loops in the Horn of Africa

Authors: Amanuel T. Mengistu¹, Marcus T. Vance²

Authors’ Affiliations: ¹Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; ²Center for Development and Emergency Practice, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract:
The unchecked proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) across porous land boundaries remains a primary structural driver of state fragmentation and insurgent violence across the Horn of Africa. This article tracks the clandestine distribution networks through which illegal weapons shipments are introduced into localized conflict zones, tracking how these operations adapt to state border controls. Utilizing a border-tracking framework combined with seized weapons classification data collected from 2020 to 2022, we examine the logistical networks connecting international syndicates to local rebel militias. The empirical evidence demonstrates that transnational criminal networks exploit gaps in inter-state intelligence sharing and weak frontier aerial radar security to traffic military-grade equipment. Quantitative indicators reveal that border districts where customs patrols are uncoordinated between neighboring states face a 68% higher rate of localized insurgent incursions and black-market arms accumulation. The paper highlights the failure of unilateral, militarized border shutdowns to dismantle decentralized supply networks. We conclude that curbing illicit arms proliferation requires establishing a joint, synchronized intelligence clearinghouse alongside automated weapon serialization tracing protocols.

Keywords: Arms Proliferation; SALW; Border Security; Horn of Africa; Transnational Crime; Supply Networks

Manuscript Timeline: Received: July 05, 2021; Revised: September 18, 2021; Accepted: December 02, 2021; Published: April 18, 2023

Citation: Mengistu, A. T., & Vance, M. T. (2023). The Architecture of Transnational Light Weapons Proliferation: Tracking Illicit Distribution Supply Loops in the Horn of Africa. Global Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies, 14(4), 28–36. DOI: 10.46882/2023/GJPCS/140401

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